Newsletter #13: How to make sense of this US dealmaking in the Gulf?

It's a high synergy mix of business and politics 🌎

May 18, 2025

Trump’s charm offensive 💵

If you’re struggling to make sense of the billions and billions (!!) of investments and trade deals during Trump’s whirlwind tour in the Gulf this week, you’re not alone. From a PR standpoint, it was executed flawlessly.

US and China somehow manage to reach a temporary truce on tariffs one day before Trump flies off to Riyadh. For a full week, Trump and his Big Tech brigade are aggressively shaking hands with Arab royalty and sovereign wealth fund investors in a cordial meeting of like minds to “LET’S DO BUSINESS” and while we’re at it, let’s also unleash the most mind-boggling series of announcements, MOUs and launches with the biggest headline numbers imaginable BECAUSE WE CAN! AND WE ARE FRIENDS! leaving our dear Chinese and Netanyahu in the dust of FOMO and neglect.

Let’s take a look at what was announced this week:

DEALS DEALS DEALS 🫱🏻‍🫲🏼

Saudi Arabia

$600 billion investment commitment: Saudi Arabia pledges to invest $600 billion in the US, focusing on sectors like energy, defense, technology, and infrastructure. Link here
$142 billion defense agreement: The largest defense sales agreement in US history, encompassing air and missile defense systems, maritime security, and modernization of Saudi armed forces. Link here

Big Tech, Chips & AI

Saudi Arabia launches Humain and two AI VC funds:
- PIF-backed Humain will operate across entire AI value chain as an integrated technology firm Link here.
- STV launches $100 million AI fund with Google Link here.
- Wyld VC is a $50m AI VC fund: Backed by Glub Family Office to invest across KSA and US. Link here.
$80 billion in tech collabs with Google, Oracle, AMD, others
- Nvidia: To supply at least 18,000 Blackwell GPUs to Humain, facilitating the development of AI capabilities in Saudi Arabia
- AMD: Committed to $10 billion investment in joint AI infrastructure projects with Humain
- Qualcomm: Signed MOU to co-develop a central processor data center with Humain

Energy, Defense & Healthcare

$20 billion in AI and energy infrastructure
- Saudi’s DataVolt plans significant investments in US AI data centers and energy projects. Link here.
- GE Vernova to supply gas turbines and energy solutions. Link here
$4.8 billion Boeing aircraft deal: Sale of Boeing 737-8 jets to AviLease Link here.
Healthcare and infrastructure investments: $5.8 billion IV fluid facility in Michigan and US firms participating in Saudi infrastructure projects Link here.

Qatar

$1.2 trillion economic exchange between Qatar-US
QIA to invest $500b in the US over the next decade: This is nearly equal to the fund’s current size. Link here.
$96 Billion Boeing deal: Qatar Airways ordered 160 Boeing 787 and 777X aircraft, the largest widebody aircraft deal for Boeing. Link here.
$38 billion defense and infrastructure investments: To upgrade Al Udeid Air Base and bolster air defense and maritime security
- Raytheon signed $1 billion contract to provide counter-drone capabilities to Qatar
- General Atomics to supply MQ-9B SkyGuardian surveillance drones to Qatar for $2 billion
- Qatar’s Al Rabban Capital pledged $1 billion to invest in quantum technologies and workforce development in the US

United Arab Emirates

$1.4 trillion AI investment commitment: A decade-long pledge to invest in US AI infrastructure, semiconductors and related technologies. Link here.
- G42 to build 5-gigawatt AI data center cluster in Abu Dhabi: OpenAI said to one of the anchor tenants. The facility will cover 10 square miles and use roughly as much power as five nuclear reactors. Nuclear, solar and gas will combine to power the new operation.
- UAE to import 500,000 Nvidia H100 chips annually
$200 billion in new deals: Spanning aerospace, energy, and critical minerals
- UAE to increase energy sector investments in the US to $440 billion by 2035. ExxonMobil and Oxy participating in UAE's energy projects.
$14.5 billion Etihad Airways order: Purchase of 28 Boeing 787 and 777X aircraft powered by GE engines

On the sidelines

Italy and UAE agree to develop an AI centre in Italy
Qatar gifts Trump a $400 million jet as a personal gift (to the disdain of many Americans)
Trump renews talks with Iran for a nuclear peace deal
US removes sanctions on Syria
US removes condition that Saudi Arabia normalises ties with Israel in exchange for US support to build nuclear capacity

So what now? 🤔

Oil prices are still hovering below $60 a barrel, Saudi indebtedness has risen, the Kingdom still has a long way to go in attracting top AI and tech talent to fulfill its grand Vision 2030 plans. All this will likely cause further delays on giga-projects like NEOM and The Line.

What can be said for the newer projects listed above, is also hard to tell.

I spoke to a Riyadh-based NEOM executive a few weeks back who described The Line as still “a giant hole in the ground”. Morale has been low, some have left, others are waiting for contracts to conclude and are sniffing for opportunities elsewhere.

People don’t realise how massive these projects are, he said.

The Line was envisioned as a 170km continuous stretch of city building complex.

Imagine driving along a highway for one-and-a-half hours — that’s roughly how long the building goes on unbroken — in the middle of the Arabian desert. The plan was to build it in stages across 135 different “modules”. Building just one module is the construction equivalent of 8 Burj Khalifas, said the NEOM executive. It took Dubai six years to build one Burj Khalifa. Not a single module is completed as of today.

As we know in true Middle East fashion, all of it is a work in progress 😄

And as far as US Big Tech is concerned, there’s money to be made and political alliances to be forged. Some, like Amazon billionaire Jeff Bezos, are more willing to bend over backwards than others, writes Jon Passatino. I wrote about US inference chip company Groq’s recent foray into Saudi Arabia in one of my earlier newsletters.

If the topline numbers are anything to be believed, the opportunity is massive indeed.